Overview
- Iraqi crude is transiting the Strait of Hormuz again and the State Oil Marketing Organization has started coordinating tanker nominations for a gradual production ramp-up.
- A memorandum announced on June 17 between the U.S. and Iran set a 60-day window that eased hostilities and allowed visible increases in tanker movements, including a spike in weekly transits in mid‑June.
- Shipping remains tightly constrained because Iran’s Revolutionary Guard enforces daily passage quotas, hundreds of vessels are still stranded and war-risk insurance premiums remain far above pre‑war levels.
- Markets reacted quickly: Brent and WTI fell more than 20% from their wartime peaks as traders priced in restored Gulf supply, though prices remain sensitive to inventory lows and any breakdown in the truce.
- Full recovery will take weeks to years because mine clearance, backlog resolution, repairs to damaged facilities and restored insurer confidence are required, and Iraq faces urgent fiscal strain after April’s collapse in exports.