Overview
- The National Hurricane Center assigns about a 20% chance of tropical development for a broad area from the northeast Gulf toward the Southeast Coast over the next several days.
- A high-resolution GRAF model shows a low forming in the northeast Gulf by Sunday and is more aggressive about genesis and a westward track than other guidance.
- Where the low first consolidates will shape its path because a more western genesis would favor westward motion while an eastern formation would allow mid-level winds to pull moisture north.
- Forecasters say some tropical moisture could increase rain chances in Savannah and the Lowcountry early next week but advise there is no need to change outdoor plans now and to keep monitoring updates.
- Meteorologists also note a separate eastern Atlantic wave is likely to weaken under wind shear and that very hot, humid weather with triple-digit heat indices will persist this weekend.