Overview
- Goldman Sachs’ base case forecasts every Gulf economy contracting 2%–5% this year, with Qatar and Kuwait shrinking up to 14% if the strait stays blocked through April.
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE are seen as less exposed in part because pipelines to Yanbu and Fujairah can bypass the chokepoint, while Bahrain could need external support if the slump persists.
- Regional oil output has already fallen from roughly 21 million to 14 million barrels per day within about a week of the conflict, Rystad Energy reported, with deeper declines possible if shipping avoids the route.
- Aviation and tourism have plunged, with 37,000 flights canceled from Feb. 28 to March 8, according to Cirium, and the World Travel & Tourism Council estimating $600 million in daily losses in visitor spending.
- S&P affirmed a stable outlook for Qatar citing large financial buffers, while analysts warn restoring investor confidence will be costly even if exports recover, with lenders reappraising Gulf risk.