Overview
- The National Hurricane Center has designated the system Potential Tropical Cyclone One and located it about 35 miles southwest of Port O'Connor with sustained winds near 30 mph, and on Wednesday said it could strengthen to Tropical Storm Arthur though chances for full cyclogenesis have been reduced.
- Tropical storm warnings are in effect from Sabine Pass to Morgan City and a watch covers the coast from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana, signaling that tropical‑storm‑force conditions are expected or possible within the next 24 to 36 hours.
- Forecasts call for widespread rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals up to 20 inches that could cause life‑threatening flash flooding from the mid and upper Texas coast into southern and central Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
- Forecasters also expect storm surge, large dangerous waves, life‑threatening surf and rip currents along the northwestern Gulf Coast and a risk of a few tornadoes through Thursday as the system moves inland and weakens.
- Climate context: an early June storm would be climatologically normal because the first named storm averages around June 20, and experts say a strong El Niño this year likely means fewer Atlantic storms overall even though individual early systems can still cause major local impacts.