Overview
- NERC’s latest long-term assessment says 13 of 23 regions face resource adequacy challenges over the next decade and declares the overall outlook is worsening.
- The 2026 projection indicates that by 2030 roughly half of the U.S. grid could face elevated or high blackout risk, including Texas, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest and central Atlantic states.
- January’s Winter Storm Fern pushed systems close to the edge, with MISO nearing load shedding as wind output fell, PJM brushing near-record winter demand and tens of thousands still without power in parts of Tennessee, Louisiana and Mississippi.
- New England relied on oil for roughly 37% to 40% of generation at the storm’s peak after Hydro-Québec curtailed exports, and regional wind output dropped sharply during the coldest period.
- Texas avoided widespread outages thanks to weatherization and operating wind plus some battery support, though wholesale prices briefly exceeded $1 per kilowatt-hour, and NERC urges faster additions of dispatchable capacity, flexible retirement plans and targeted operational measures such as DOE’s pre-storm backup orders.