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Greggs Guides to Flat Profits as Like-For-Like Growth Cools, Shares Drop

Weak consumer confidence is weighing on underlying demand, prompting cautious guidance.

Overview

  • Total sales rose 7.4% in the Christmas quarter, taking annual revenue to about £2.15bn, while like-for-like growth at company-managed shops was 2.9% in Q4 and roughly 2.4% for the year.
  • Management expects profits to be broadly flat in the year ahead unless the consumer backdrop improves.
  • Targeted price rises lifted a sausage roll by 5p to £1.35 and a regular latte by 10p to £2.25, with no further increases planned for now.
  • Greggs disclosed a £4.5m VAT accounting error that will reduce reported profit, and said cost efficiencies delivered about £13m in 2025.
  • The chain added a net 121 shops in 2025 to roughly 2,739–2,740 locations, plans around 120 net new sites in 2026 with lower capital spending, and saw its shares fall sharply as short interest sits near 11–12%.