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Great Barrier Reef Shows Patchy Recovery After Monsoon Cooling

Monsoon-cooled seas reduced 2025/26 bleaching and allowed modest regional gains that could be erased by recurring heat, storms or starfish outbreaks.

Overview

  • AIMS’ Long-Term Monitoring Program, which released its 40th annual report on Tuesday, found reef-wide coral cover rose regionally with the north up 16.7% and the central region up 10.2%, while 28% of surveyed reefs showed increases and 16% declined.
  • A late-summer 2026 monsoon increased cloud cover and lowered sea surface temperatures, which AIMS scientists say likely limited the severity of bleaching during the 2025/26 season and gave corals room to regrow.
  • Fixed-site surveys show the 2024 mass-bleaching hit fast-growing Acropora communities hardest, leaving those reefs highly vulnerable and able to lose apparent gains within a single year if another severe disturbance occurs.
  • AIMS reported rising numbers of crown-of-thorns starfish in the northern Reef consistent with the start of a fifth outbreak wave, and noted surveys were mostly completed before Cyclone Narelle’s March passage that caused additional storm damage.
  • The LTMP’s 40-year dataset underpins management choices and helped inform UNESCO’s decision not to list the Reef as 'in danger' last month, but scientists say sustained emissions cuts and targeted reef actions are still needed to preserve recovery windows.