Grayscale Says Fed Pause Could Mean Bitcoin’s Bear Market Has Ended

A stop to rate hikes would ease real interest‑rate pressure, letting current lows persist, with regulatory progress and Strategy’s larger cash reserve shaping the outlook.

Overview

Grayscale’s head of research Zach Pandl argues the recent low for Bitcoin may already be a cycle bottom if the Federal Reserve halts further rate increases and U.S. growth holds.
The firm lays out a macro-based view that ties Bitcoin’s price to real interest rates and growth and contrasts this with a traditional four-year halving model that historically predicts later, deeper lows.
Grayscale identifies three decisive factors for whether the low holds: Fed policy, movement on the CLARITY Act that would set federal rules for crypto markets, and the balance-sheet health of large holders.
Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million and raised its dollar reserve to roughly $2.55 billion, which Grayscale says lowers the chance that the company must make emergency sales to meet dividend obligations.
Key near-term risks that could push prices lower are renewed Fed tightening, failure or delay of the CLARITY Act in the Senate, and continued outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs that feed liquidations and selling pressure.