Grain Prices Rally as Funds, Export Sales and Black Sea Disruption Tighten Supplies

Overview

• Corn, soybean and wheat futures strengthened in mid‑July after managed‑money funds heavily increased corn longs and reduced wheat shorts, amplifying price moves.
• USDA reported large private new‑crop soybean sales to China and Mexico on Monday that lifted soy futures and pushed cash soybean values higher.
• Weekly USDA export inspections and shipments show U.S. soybean shipments running below last year while corn exports remain ahead, meaning private daily sales can quickly change near‑term balances.
• Escalating strikes on Black Sea ports and vessels have disrupted Ukrainian wheat flows and, together with forecasts of tighter crops in parts of Europe and Australia, have supported wheat prices.
• Cattle prices have slid sharply after weeks of losses and softer boxed beef values, while hogs and pork values are firmer, creating a split protein complex that affects feed demand and farm margins.