Overview
- USDA crop progress published this week showed the U.S. corn crop 78% silking and soybeans 80% blooming from the July 26 report while condition ratings dropped to about 63% good‑to‑excellent, leaving yields sensitive to late‑season weather.
- Soybean futures plunged midweek on a wetter 7‑day NOAA forecast that calls for 1–2 inches of rain in key Midwest areas, with intraday losses reported broadly in the 28 to 40 cent range.
- Corn found support from trade data and biofuels demand as USDA FGIS reported 1.488 million metric tons of weekly corn inspections and USDA Export Sales showed 362,916 MT of old‑crop sales plus about 1.062 MMT booked for 2026/27, while EIA data put ethanol output at about 1.133 million barrels per day.
- Wheat prices rose sharply after fresh disruptions to Black Sea export routes, including restrictions at terminals and reported strikes and a drone attack on the Taman terminal, which pushed buyers to look for alternative supplies.
- Large commercial moves are reshaping flows: China’s Sinograin plans to auction roughly 500,000 MT of imported soybeans and updated Brazilian export/crush estimates point to heavy Southern Hemisphere supply, leaving farmers, exporters and buyers to manage tighter near‑term storage and delivery risks.