Grain Futures Rebound on Oil Swings as USDA Leaves U.S. Stocks Unchanged

Overview

• Corn, soybeans, and wheat opened higher Wednesday after a Tuesday pullback, extending a volatile week that saw multi‑month highs earlier.
• USDA’s March WASDE kept U.S. balance sheets largely intact, including corn ending stocks at 2.127 billion bushels, soybeans effectively unchanged at 350 million bushels, and wheat at 931 million bushels.
• World adjustments were modest, with corn stocks rising to 292.75 MMT on higher Brazil and Ukraine figures, while soy output held steady for Brazil and edged lower for Argentina, and global wheat stocks dipped to 276.96 MMT.
• Energy markets continued to drive sentiment as crude spiked then fell more than $30, with the U.S. escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz and reports of mines in the waterway influencing risk pricing.
• CFTC data showed a sharp speculative shift, with funds flipping to a 52,974‑contract net long in corn and expanding soybean longs to 198,902, as export reports highlighted strong wheat and corn shipments versus a lagging soybean pace.