Grain Futures Ease as Traders Wait for USDA Export Sales and Midwest Rain Forecast

Overview

• Traders are entering Thursday cautious while awaiting USDA weekly export sales that analysts expect to show roughly 200,000–600,000 tonnes of old‑crop corn and 0.7–1.2 million tonnes of new‑crop corn, 100,000–400,000 tonnes of old‑crop soybeans and 0.9–1.55 million tonnes of new‑crop soybeans, and about 250,000–450,000 tonnes of 2026/27 wheat.
• Front‑month corn and soybean futures were trading modestly lower with the nearest contracts taking the biggest losses and open interest shifting in September corn as traders rolled positions and some longs liquidated.
• NOAA’s seven‑day rainfall forecast shows 1–4 inches across parts of the U.S. Midwest, a near‑term easing of dryness that has reduced immediate yield risk and weighed on nearby futures.
• U.S. ethanol production slipped to 1.107 million barrels per day for the week of July 31 with stocks drawing down, while strong soybean crush and Chinese Sinograin buying have tightened soybean balances and supported demand expectations.
• Global trade moves continue to matter for flows and basis: Black Sea export disruptions and large tenders such as Algeria’s purchase have tightened available supplies, and China’s recent Sinograin soybean auction sold about 334,000 tonnes of the 501,000 offered.