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Government Weighs Capital Gains Tax Discount Changes for May Budget

New PBO estimates of a $247 billion decade-long cost heighten pressure on Chalmers’s reform-focused May budget.

Overview

  • Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the May 12 budget will feature tax measures, savings and a productivity package, and he declined to rule out changes to the capital gains concession.
  • Parliamentary Budget Office analysis projects the 50% discount will cost $247 billion over 10 years, with about 82% of benefits going to the top 10% of earners and nearly 60% to the top 1%.
  • The Greens signalled willingness to negotiate on the scale, scope and design of reforms, as their Senate inquiry into the discount prepares to report, while the Coalition declared firm opposition.
  • Economic modelling cited by Grattan Institute and Deloitte suggests trimming the discount would likely have only a small effect on house prices, with larger impacts requiring changes to negative gearing or broader design shifts.
  • Design choices under discussion include grandfathering existing assets, limiting changes to property or exempting new builds, as Labor balances revenue, intergenerational equity and housing supply goals.