Overview
- The government published an impact assessment in mid‑August that put direct employer costs from the planned zero‑hours measures between about £350m and £2.9bn per year with an indicative central estimate near £1.1bn.
- Core reforms in the Employment Rights Act include a right to guaranteed minimum hours for eligible staff, payments for shifts cancelled at short notice, and longer rota‑notice periods, and each element has a separate cost estimate in the assessment.
- The consultation on detailed design is still open and will be decisive because the weekly‑hours eligibility threshold — officials favour 8–20 hours but options up to 48 hours are being considered — is the biggest driver of the eventual cost and coverage.
- Business groups warn extra direct costs and new admin for payroll and HR could reduce hiring, particularly in hospitality, retail, care and the arts, while ministers and unions say the move will boost pay, security and worker wellbeing.
- If implemented as modelled the reforms could alter hiring and shift patterns for about 1.2 million people on variable‑hour contracts and may have wider effects on youth jobs and sector flexibility depending on the final threshold and rules.