Overview
- An Opinium constituency poll published on Wednesday shows the Greens and Labour tied on 28% with Reform on 27%, and the Greens leading 30% to Labour and Reform on 28% among those most likely to vote.
- Keir Starmer visited the constituency and cast the contest as a straight fight with Reform UK while attacking the Greens over drugs policy, warning Green votes could hand Reform the seat.
- The by-election on Thursday follows Labour MP Andrew Gwynne’s resignation in a seat long dominated by Labour, raising the stakes for Starmer after Labour’s 2024 majority of more than 13,000.
- Campaign dynamics feature sharp demographic splits, with younger and more diverse western wards leaning Green and older, white working-class areas in Denton leaning Reform.
- Greens’ Hannah Spencer and Reform’s Matt Goodwin both claim momentum, as earlier Omnisis polling also suggested the Greens narrowly ahead, with turnout and tactical voting expected to be decisive.