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GOP Worried Iran War Will Cost Republicans Control of Congress

Broad public disapproval of the conflict and rising fuel costs have GOP strategists warning the prolonged campaign could suppress conservative turnout and flip key seats this November.

Overview

  • Six months after U.S. strikes on Iran that President Trump said would last “four to five weeks,” the campaign has continued with no clear end in sight and is eroding support for the president.
  • Nationwide polls show large disapproval of the administration’s handling of the war, with an IpsosReuters survey reporting 63% of Americans disapprove and most voters expecting prolonged U.S. involvement.
  • Republican operatives say the conflict has demoralized parts of the GOP base and helped move competitive Senate contests in Texas and Iowa to toss‑up ratings, raising the risk Republicans lose one or both chambers.
  • Voters blame the war for higher gas prices and inflation after disruptions to shipping and energy markets, a shift that Democrats are using in targeted ads in the Midwest and other battlegrounds.
  • The White House publicly defends the pressure campaign while anonymous outside advisers and analysts say they do not expect a quick resolution or relief in fuel costs before the midterms, increasing concern about campaign credibility and turnout.