Overview
- Kristen Soltis Anderson, in a Tuesday New York Times op-ed, says roughly half of Republican voters are party-first 'normies' who have grown less favorable toward President Trump.
- Since last year, the share of Republicans who feel very favorable toward Trump fell by 10 points, and only 44% strongly approve of his handling of the economy.
- Motivation to vote now splits the party, with 62% of Trump-first Republicans describing themselves as extremely motivated compared with 49% of party-first voters.
- Party-first Republicans still lean Republican down the ballot, with 91% expecting to vote for a GOP candidate, yet they report weaker urgency to participate.
- Democrats show higher intensity, with Fox News polling finding more Democrats extremely motivated and Anderson’s survey reporting 82% calling a midterm win extremely important versus 57% of Republicans; she warns that if normie Republicans stay home, the GOP could face electoral disaster, a message highlighted by left-leaning outlets.