Overview
- Senate Republican leaders privately told colleagues at a closed-door meeting Monday that internal polling shows independents moving in large numbers away from the GOP, leaving some attendees described as "visibly shaken."
- Public polls continue to show weak ratings for President Trump on pocketbook issues, with a mid-June Fox News survey finding 23 percent approval on gas prices and 31 percent approval on economic management.
- A sour, anti-incumbent mood has already reshaped this year’s primaries, producing eight House incumbent losses and Republican Senate primary upsets in Louisiana and Texas after high-profile endorsements.
- Experienced pollsters note that presidential approval strongly predicts midterm House losses and say current numbers point to a likely Democratic pickup in the House and a realistic chance to net Senate seats.
- Outcome uncertainty remains high because individual Senate races depend on state-level factors, turnout, candidate quality and primary rules, and changes could alter November’s map before voters decide.