Goldman Upgrades NIO to Buy on SUV‑Driven Turnaround Outlook

Goldman says recent SUV refreshes and stronger deliveries could push NIO to profit and positive free cash flow in 2026.

Overview

Goldman Sachs raised NIO from Neutral to Buy in mid‑July and set a $7 price target, implying roughly 40% upside from current levels.
Analyst Tina Hou credited the upgrade to heavy SUV momentum, citing the redesigned ES8, ES9 and L80 product launches as drivers of stronger retail demand.
NIO delivered 191,000 vehicles in the first half of 2026, a 67% year‑over‑year increase, and the ES8 averaged more than 10,000 monthly sales through June, leading the Rmb400k+ SUV segment.
Goldman projects 43% volume growth in 2026, a vehicle gross margin near 17%, a non‑GAAP net profit of Rmb1.6 billion and free cash flow flipping to +Rmb12.1 billion.
Investors reacted with modest buying and higher institutional positions but Wall Street sentiment stays mixed and analysts warn execution and a weak domestic NEV market are the key risks to Goldman’s forecast.