Overview
- Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius and researcher Joseph Briggs say AI investment contributed “basically zero” to last year’s U.S. growth.
- They argue most AI equipment is imported, so investment gains are offset by a larger drag from net exports in the national accounts.
- Much of the outlay flows to chip manufacturing in Taiwan and South Korea, with reports indicating up to three‑quarters of data‑center costs go to computing components sourced abroad.
- Economic analyst Joseph Politano estimates AI accounted for about 0.2 percentage points of 2025 U.S. growth, far below popular narratives.
- Big Tech still plans massive 2026 AI infrastructure spending—reported as high as $700 billion—while Goldman has introduced SPXXAI, an index excluding AI‑related stocks.