Overview
- Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs said in the bank’s recent forum that AI could displace roughly 15 million U.S. workers over the next decade based on a model that assumes a 15% productivity boost at full adoption.
- Briggs argued AI is already trimming monthly payroll growth by about 10,000 to 15,000 jobs, with early effects concentrated in tech, management consulting and graphic design.
- Experts on the same Goldman platform disputed the timing and scale: MIT’s Neil Thompson said real-world adoption and partial automation should slow losses, while Daron Acemoglu warned of net declines in routine roles.
- Corporate leaders have softened earlier warnings and some firm-level studies show heavy AI adopters growing headcount, suggesting adoption patterns determine whether AI creates or destroys jobs at the company level.
- The forecast raises distributional and macro risks because entry-level and lower-wage roles may be hit first, which could weaken household spending and force policy choices about retraining, taxes, or interest rates.