Overview
- Goldman Sachs updated its personal‑trading policy in early July 2026 to bar employees from placing prediction‑market contracts tied to companies, financial markets, elections, macroeconomic data, and geopolitics.
- The bank says sports and entertainment markets remain allowed but warns repeated breaches can lead to discipline, loss of profits from trades, or termination.
- The change follows federal charges in May 2026 accusing a Google employee of using nonpublic information to win about $1.2 million on Polymarket, a case that regulators and companies cite as a turning point.
- Major firms including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America are revising or clarifying rules for staff trading, while platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have added employer verification, risk scores, and partnerships with analytics firms to detect suspicious trades.
- Policy makers and researchers warn of a tradeoff where stricter bans and surveillance reduce abuse but may also remove informative trades that help prediction markets reflect real‑world information, and regulators are pursuing litigation and congressional probes that could reshape oversight.