Overview
- Goldman updated its personal trading rules in July 2026 to bar staff from placing prediction-market contracts tied to financial markets, elections, macroeconomic data, geopolitics, and specific companies while allowing narrow sports and entertainment bets.
- The policy treats repeated breaches seriously and says violations can lead to termination, signaling a stricter compliance stance than routine trading guidance.
- The change follows May charges by the CFTC and DOJ accusing a Google employee of using nonpublic information to profit on Polymarket, which has driven regulators to increase scrutiny of event-based trading.
- Other large banks have either added related rules or are reviewing guidance—Morgan Stanley folded prediction-market language into its code, JPMorgan urged caution, and Bank of America is updating staff guidance—while most companies still lack explicit policies.
- Platforms and regulators are responding in different ways: Kalshi has expanded surveillance and disclosure under CFTC oversight, Polymarket runs on crypto rails and faces criminal charges, and firms may still explore institutional uses even as they curb employee activity.