Overview
- Software shares have slumped, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF falling more than 24% in the first quarter and lagging the S&P 500 by about 21% this year.
- Goldman Sachs argues investor fear that AI agents will replace traditional software has driven a broad repricing rather than a sudden business downturn.
- To separate likely losers from resilient names, Goldman’s AI Impact Framework scores firms on orchestration risk, monetization exposure, system-of-record ownership, data integration moat, AI execution, and budget alignment.
- Using that playbook, Goldman kept buy ratings and set targets for MongoDB at $475, Rubrik at $80, Procore at $75, and Nutanix at $60.
- Valuations now imply only 5% to 10% medium-term revenue growth versus 15% to 20% at recent peaks, and the software ETF’s forward price-to-earnings has slipped below the S&P 500’s.