Overview
- Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 U.S. recession probability to 30% from 25%, citing Iranian tensions and $100-plus oil tied to Strait of Hormuz risks.
- JPMorgan and EY‑Parthenon are cited with higher odds near 35% and 40%, pointing to a broader reassessment of growth risks.
- Brent crude remains above $100 per barrel as disruption near the Hormuz chokepoint strains oil flows and keeps energy costs high.
- Prediction markets price a 2026 recession near 30 cents on the dollar, which would pay $1 if one is later declared, though trading is light as traders wait for clearer signals.
- A 4.4% unemployment rate and higher fuel costs raise inflation pressure, which could make the Federal Reserve slower to cut interest rates.