Overview
- Goldman Sachs raised its end‑2026 forecast to $4,900 after concluding that record central‑bank purchases have changed the market’s structure, a view published in its research note on July 21.
- The bank estimates global authorities bought 81 tonnes of gold in May, with China accounting for about 48 tonnes, lifting the seasonally adjusted monthly run rate to roughly 67 tonnes versus a pre‑2022 average near 17 tonnes.
- Goldman projects average official purchases near 50 tonnes per month in 2026 and 40 tonnes per month in 2027, which the firm says should establish a durable support level under prices because central banks buy with little sensitivity to short‑term moves.
- Near‑term price moves are being driven by renewed Middle East tensions and higher oil that boost safe‑haven demand, while higher US Treasury yields and a firmer dollar raise the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding gold and act as the main headwinds.
- International rallies have passed quickly to local markets, with sharp price jumps reported in Pakistan and India, and the key catalysts to watch next are US Fed guidance, Treasury yields, and further official‑sector reserve reports.