Overview
- Strong U.S. labour data lifted market odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase to about 60%, putting upward pressure on Treasury yields and pressuring the non‑yielding metal.
- Gold briefly fell below $4,400 after Friday's jobs report but recovered to the $4,400 area on a softer dollar and flows into safe‑haven assets.
- Renewed U.S.–Iran naval exchanges and attacks on tankers pushed Brent toward or above $100 a barrel, raising near‑term inflation risk that can both support gold as a hedge and strengthen the case for higher rates.
- China's reported large August central‑bank gold purchases and steady jewellery demand provide structural support that may limit further downside during short‑term volatility.
- Traders are focused on U.S. PPI on Thursday and CPI on Friday this week as the likely catalysts that will shape Fed expectations, yields, the dollar, and the next sustained direction for gold, with local markets already transmitting the moves into city and tola prices in Pakistan and India.