Overview
- Spot gold traded around $4,995 per ounce on Feb. 20, with prices near €4,270 in Europe, stabilizing after late‑January intraday records above $5,500.
- Goldman Sachs says central banks are delaying purchases until prices settle but remain structurally positive on gold, with a base‑case target of $5,400 by end‑2026.
- Analysts attribute the rally to private‑sector diversification, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and heavy call‑option activity that amplifies price swings.
- Central banks bought roughly 1,000 tonnes in both 2023 and 2024 and about 900 tonnes in 2025 at higher prices, underscoring persistent official‑sector demand despite recent caution.
- Key risks flagged include rising real interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar, while silver continues to show sharper swings tied to London liquidity constraints.