Overview
- Global spot gold has fallen roughly a quarter from late‑January records near $5,600 to trade around $4,000 per ounce after a sharp June decline that is set to be the metal’s worst monthly drop since 2008.
- Markets repriced U.S. monetary policy after stronger inflation and jobs signals and hawkish Fed commentary, which lifted Treasury yields and the dollar and made interest‑bearing assets more attractive than gold.
- Institutional flows and market structure amplified the move as known global gold ETF holdings fell to multi‑month lows, options activity shifted toward downside protection, and automated stop‑losses and algorithmic selling intensified downward pressure.
- The rout has translated quickly to local markets and households, with Pakistan’s per‑tola price sliding to Rs424,836 and Indian consumers selling about 50 tonnes of old jewellery over three months to lock in cash; analysts have trimmed year‑end targets, including Goldman Sachs to $4,900.
- Near‑term direction will hinge on U.S. economic data and Fed signals this week plus developments in U.S.‑Iran talks and currency volatility, while longer‑term support may come from central bank buying and technical levels near $3,900–$3,750.