Overview
- The July US payrolls report showed a roughly 23,000 drop in nonfarm jobs, a shock that lowered the market’s chance of a September Fed hike and pushed real yields and the dollar down.
- Markets sent gold up about 7% for the week to the mid-$4,300s per ounce and silver into the low $60s, driven by the rate-repricing and inflows into ETFs and physical holdings.
- UBS reaffirmed a target of $5,000 per ounce by early 2027, saying falling real yields, dollar weakness and steady central-bank buying support higher prices.
- Official demand remains a price floor with the People’s Bank of China recording 21 consecutive months of purchases and about 20 tonnes added in July, while Indian futures on the MCX jumped sharply on the international move.
- The rally’s durability now hinges on next week’s inflation prints, Fed guidance and oil or West Asia developments, any of which could push yields and the dollar back up and reverse gains.