Overview
- By mid-June spot gold was trading around $4,200 per ounce, about 25% below the record near $5,595 set in late January but still up roughly 20% year-on-year.
- Large, price-insensitive central-bank buying remains the market’s structural floor with estimates showing roughly 244 tonnes purchased in Q1 2026 and about 863 tonnes for 2025.
- Stronger U.S. data, notably the June 6 payrolls print, lifted odds of tighter Fed policy and strengthened the dollar, which pushed gold below its 200-day moving average and removed momentum from the rally.
- Reports of a possible U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding helped push oil prices lower and eased some inflation fears, prompting mixed near-term forecasts including UBS’s revised $3,850–$4,000 range and more bullish 12–18 month calls from other firms.
- ETF positioning adds volatility risk because a material share of fund holdings sits below purchase prices and the largest physical ETF (GLD) remains a key liquidity and price-transmission point to watch along with Fed policy, central-bank buying and oil markets.