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Gold Rallies From $4,000 Test as Jobs Data Dents Fed Hike Odds

Weak June payrolls trimmed the chances of a July rate increase and left sustained central bank buying as the main support for bullion.

Overview

  • A soft U.S. jobs report showing about 57,000 payrolls in June pushed Treasury yields and the dollar lower and helped lift gold off a test of the low $4,000s.
  • The move produced the metal’s first weekly gain since May, roughly a 3.1 percent rise, with spot prices recovering toward the $4,150–$4,200 range.
  • Despite the rebound, gold remains about 20–25 percent below its late‑January record near $5,600, reflecting heavy selling in June when markets priced a more aggressive Fed.
  • Major institutions and the World Gold Council say central banks keep buying gold steadily, and Goldman Sachs reiterated a $4,900 per ounce end‑2026 target based on that price‑insensitive demand.
  • The rally fed through to local markets where Indian MCX futures and retail rates jumped sharply and Pakistani tola prices swung daily, showing how global rate cues quickly affect consumers and traders.