Overview
- Spot gold has dropped about 20–25% from its January record and traded around $4,000–$4,200 after a rapid correction this week.
- The May U.S. jobs print, which showed payrolls rose more than expected, pushed up odds of further Fed tightening and strengthened the dollar, putting pressure on gold.
- UBS cut its near-term gold forecast to a $3,850–$4,000 range while keeping a constructive 12‑month view based on expected central‑bank purchases.
- Technical signals, including a break below the 200‑day moving average, and modest ETF outflows have made traders cautious but do not show widespread investor capitulation.
- Longer term, persistent reserve buying by central banks and some asset managers’ forecasts for a rebound leave open the chance that declines toward the UBS range could be buying opportunities.