Overview
- Late June spot prices sit roughly 20–30% below January’s record high, trading around $4,000–$4,100 after a multi-month correction that accelerated in mid‑June.
- Signals that the Federal Reserve will keep policy tight have pushed real yields and the dollar higher, raising the cost of holding non‑yielding gold and driving the recent selloff.
- A World Gold Council survey found a record 45% of 76 central banks plan to increase gold reserves, and that steady sovereign buying is a key reason UBS and Goldman Sachs still forecast hefty gains over the next 12 months.
- Exchange-traded funds recorded near-term outflows as yields rose, but major banks say ETF demand could recover once the Fed holds rates steady, which would remove a key headwind for prices.
- Traders should watch U.S. inflation and jobs data, Fed guidance, and technical support near $4,000 because those factors will likely decide whether the pullback becomes a buying opportunity or extends into a deeper correction.