Overview
- Spot gold was trading around $4,060 per ounce and has stayed in a roughly $3,950–$4,200 range, leaving the market stuck between short-term pressure and longer-term support.
- UBS told clients it still sees a bullish path to $5,200 by June 2027 but warned prices could first fall toward about $3,850 if the Fed keeps rates higher and real yields rise.
- Deutsche Bank argued the recent correction has likely found a floor near $3,900 and kept a year‑end fair‑value view near $4,700 with a Q4 target of about $4,600.
- Official buying is the main structural support for gold with World Gold Council figures showing Q2 purchases of about 289 tonnes and first‑half buying running at an annualised pace near 700 tonnes, while reports show renewed Chinese institutional and official demand.
- Near‑term drivers include US jobs data and Fed signals this week, ongoing Middle East tensions that lift safe‑haven interest, and weak retail/ETF flows that leave the market vulnerable if real yields climb further.