Overview
- Markets pared the probability of a July Federal Reserve rate increase after July 14's US June CPI came in softer than expected, cutting near‑term hike odds from roughly 40% to about 30%.
- Gold has swung sharply this week, slipping below $4,000 in a sell‑off before briefly topping about $4,100 and settling in a volatile $4,020–$4,050 range today.
- President Trump announced the reinstatement of a US blockade on Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a move that helped push oil above $80 per barrel and renewed inflation concerns that can pressure bullion via higher rates.
- Silver remains highly reactive, trading between roughly $57–$59 per ounce as traders weigh weaker rate‑hike odds against short‑term safe‑haven flows from geopolitical risk.
- Price‑insensitive official purchases, including reported buys by the People's Bank of China and Ghana's Gold Board, are providing structural support to bullion even as local retail markets in India and Pakistan move independently.