Overview
- Spot gold was trading around $4,000 per ounce on July 20 as buyers pushed the metal to test technical resistance near $4,020–$4,025.
- Escalation in the U.S.-Iran confrontation has driven Brent crude above $90 a barrel, reviving concerns that energy-driven inflation could become broader and persistent.
- Market odds of a Fed rate hike spiked to about 40% during last week’s flare-up before retreating toward roughly 10%, a shift that has added volatility to gold prices.
- A firmer U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields are increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and have capped upside despite safe-haven flows.
- Analysts expect near-term support in the $3,800–$4,000 band and say the July 29 Fed decision plus incoming U.S. inflation and jobs data will likely decide gold’s next sustained move.