Overview
- Spot gold slid into the low $4,300s in early September, trading roughly 21–22% below its January record after several straight sessions of losses.
- Comments from Federal Reserve leaders and the CME FedWatch tool pushed the market probability of a September rate hike toward about 66–70 percent, lifting Treasury yields and reducing demand for a non‑yielding asset like gold.
- New US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliation lifted oil prices, which raised inflation worries that in turn strengthened expectations for tighter Fed policy and added to selling pressure on bullion.
- The international decline passed quickly to retail and futures markets in South Asia, with Pakistan tola prices falling to about Rs454,036 and Indian retail rates near Rs1.58 lakh per 10 grams while MCX futures extended multi‑day declines.
- Institutional flows, central‑bank purchases and model‑based valuations continue to support longer‑term gold demand, but traders say upcoming US jobs and inflation data and further Fed comments will be the key near‑term drivers.