Overview
- Prices have retraced sharply from a January record near $5,589 to roughly $4,200 per ounce in mid‑June, a drop of about 20–25 percent that followed a six‑month high earlier this year.
- Stronger US jobs and inflation signals raised expectations for higher or later Fed easing, which pushed real yields and the dollar higher and reduced demand for non‑yielding gold; UBS cut its near‑term range to about $3,850–$4,000 as a result.
- Large, price‑insensitive central bank purchases remain a structural support for gold, with alternative estimates putting 2025 and Q1 2026 buying in the hundreds of tonnes and ETFs adding material tonnes in Q1.
- Diplomacy and renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran have kept oil and inflation risks elevated, producing episodic safe‑haven flows and fast swings in positioning that can quickly move the market.
- Technical damage has increased short‑term downside risk after gold fell below its 200‑day moving average and key support near $4,100, while analysts remain split on whether the next move will be further weakness or a return to new highs later in 2026.