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Gold Bulls Rally Around $12,595 Thesis as Prices Stabilize After January Whipsaw

A widely shared note from investor Daniel Oliver argues that central‑bank reserve shifts could justify far higher valuations.

Overview

  • Daniel Oliver of Myrmikan Capital posits that if central banks lift gold to roughly one‑third to one‑half of reserves, an implied range of $8,395 to $12,595 per ounce is conceivable, with no timeline specified.
  • Spot prices remain elevated, with Tuesday quotes near $5,060 per ounce in dollars and Friday morning levels around €4,178 per ounce in Europe as the market firms after recent turbulence.
  • Late January saw extreme intraday moves—gold down over 10% and silver off about 35% on Jan. 30—exacerbated by leverage, margin dynamics, ETF flows and forced liquidations.
  • Structural demand set records in 2025, the World Gold Council reports, led by investment buying through ETFs and physical bars and coins even as jewelry demand lagged at higher prices.
  • Gold‑linked equities have surged, with Newmont up roughly 166% over 12 months, and Oliver’s thesis drew enthusiastic responses from market voices including Luke Gromen and Brien Lundin.