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4w ago

Globalization Rewires Into a Multi‑Nodal Trade Patchwork, WEF Says at Davos

WEF’s Davos outlook frames steady but rerouted commerce as governments and firms navigate a costlier, rules‑splitting trade map.

Davos Congress Centre where prestigious annual World Economic Forum takes place in Switzerland.
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Mirek Dusek is the World Economic Forum's first Chief Business Officer, leading engagement with the Forum's partner companies globally.

Overview

  • WTO economists estimate global goods trade grew 2.4% in 2025 and services exports rose 4.6%, signaling resilience even as patterns shift.
  • WEF projects goods trade expanding by roughly 2.5% annually in a multi‑nodal system where routes and partnerships are shaped by geopolitics and industrial policy.
  • Governments imposed more than 3,000 trade‑restrictive measures from 2019 to 2024, and WTO data show a marked slowdown in 2023 merchandise trade growth to 0.8%.
  • UNCTAD finds nearly 40% of global FDI now concentrates within regional blocs, underscoring the tilt toward proximity and politically aligned corridors.
  • The IMF warns fragmentation could cost up to 7% of global GDP over time, and business guidance stresses resilience as sanctions, tariffs and export controls converge into a tougher compliance regime.