Overview
- Markets surged this week after U.S. officials signaled an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be imminent, sending Brent and WTI prices down roughly 4–5% on key sessions and pushing major European and U.S. indices to new highs.
- Investors treated the oil rout as a reduction in the geopolitical premium tied to Middle East fighting, which helped lower 10‑year government yields and reduce expectations for further central bank rate hikes.
- Corporate results reinforced the rally with a high share of S&P 500 companies beating forecasts and big beats from some data and software firms, while AI and semiconductor names led gains in Paris, New York and Asia.
- Tehran has denied that direct talks with Washington are under way and hostile incidents in the Strait of Hormuz have continued, leaving the diplomatic picture unconfirmed and the energy outlook fragile.
- The immediate watch list for markets includes further developments on Hormuz negotiations, oil price moves, upcoming U.S. jobs data and earnings from large tech and chip companies that could confirm or reverse recent optimism.