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Global Smartphone Production Declines in Q1 and Full-Year Outlook Slumps

TrendForce warns that rising memory costs and the exhaustion of cheaper inventory could shrink 2026 production by about 16.2 percent.

Overview

  • TrendForce’s Q1 2026 data show global smartphone production fell 1.7% to 284 million units, with Samsung producing about 62.6 million and Apple about 60.2 million.
  • The research firm projects full-year 2026 production will drop roughly 16.2% to 1.051 billion units and says the decline could deepen if memory prices stay high.
  • Manufacturers used stockpiles of cheaper DRAM and NAND to blunt near-term cost pressure but those inventories are being depleted and input costs are rising.
  • Apple and Samsung raised Q1 output thanks to new product ramps and wider margins that help absorb cost shocks while lower‑margin Chinese brands face bigger profit and shipment risks.
  • Higher component costs could force retail price increases, cut shipments for budget models, and add regional risk in markets such as Europe and the United States.