Overview
- Copernicus analysis for June 2026 found global sea-surface temperatures reached about 20.86 °C, the highest for this season on record, continuing a multiyear warming trend.
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has declared El Niño conditions active in the equatorial Pacific, a pattern that shifts warm water eastward and can transfer ocean heat to the atmosphere months later.
- A large Pacific marine heatwave formed by warm North Pacific waters merging with El Niño-related warming now covers a substantial area, with some estimates citing roughly 13.5% of the Earth’s surface.
- Climate models and the World Meteorological Organization say the combination of very warm oceans and a strengthening El Niño raises the chances that 2026–2030 will include years above 1.5 °C and that 2027 could set a new global temperature record.
- Experts say the hotter ocean will likely mean more evaporation, more fuel for intense storms and heavy rainfall, continued pressure on fisheries and coastal ecosystems, and higher coastal sea levels that increase flood risk in coming months.