Overview
- The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported a daily global sea surface temperature of about 21.1°C on August 22, a new record for waters outside the polar regions that narrowly tops the March 2024 high.
- NOAA now puts the odds above 90% that the 2026 El Niño will become very strong and the UK Met Office calls the event unprecedented in modern records, with forecasts pointing to a peak in late 2026 to early 2027.
- Early, observable impacts include stricter Panama Canal load limits, delayed planting and regional droughts, and international agencies such as the World Food Programme warn of heightened food insecurity risks.
- Scientists say the record heat amplifies risks to marine life and fisheries because warm surface water reduces nutrient upwelling and oxygen levels, leaving stocks such as the Peruvian anchovy especially vulnerable.
- While the Copernicus estimate exceeds the previous record by a small margin and model spread leaves regional outcomes uncertain, forecasters expect further warming into the peak months and say 2027 is likely to be the warmest year on record.