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Global Manufacturing PMIs Show Sharp U.S. Upswing and Weakness in China and India

Shipping disruption and higher oil prices from the renewed Middle East conflict have pushed input costs up and raised doubts about the durability of recent production gains.

A general view of production lines of German car manufacturer Mercedes-Benz at a factory, in Rastatt, Germany, June 4, 2025.  REUTERS/Christoph Steitz
Steel components lie at as steel manufacturing factory in Mendota, Illinois, U.S., February 21, 2025. REUTERS/Vincent Alban
The assembly line and new electric Mercedes-Benz C models are seen during the opening of the expanded factory in Kecskemet, Hungary, July 13, 2026. REUTERS/Marton Monus
Salesmen fold shirts inside a clothes store at a market in Mumbai, India, March 3, 2016. Growth in India's services industry slowed sharply in February as rising prices lead to a slight deceleration in demand, a business survey showed on Thursday. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui

Overview

  • On Monday, final July PMI releases painted an uneven picture with the Institute for Supply Management reporting the U.S. manufacturing PMI at 55.6 while S&P Global and national surveys showed softer readings for major exporters.
  • U.S. factories surged as strong new orders, stock rebuilding and AI‑related investment lifted activity and employment to the best levels since 2022.
  • China’s private S&P‑compiled PMI slipped to 50.9 and an official Chinese survey showed factory activity in contraction, signaling weakening momentum and slower new‑order growth.
  • India’s HSBC/S&P PMI cooled to 53.5, its weakest since August 2021, with domestic demand and hiring slowing even as exports provided some support.
  • Euro zone output hit multi‑year highs largely because firms cleared backlogs while companies across regions front‑loaded purchases in response to Gulf shipping snarls and higher energy costs, a dynamic that complicates central‑bank decisions and risks leaving growth fragile once inventory boosts fade.