Overview
- Major climate agencies say sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are climbing, with a roughly 60–70% chance El Niño will form between May and July 2026.
- Scientists note subsurface heat similar to 1997–98, and some forecasts put the odds of a very strong event near one in four, though forecasters caution uncertainty remains.
- South Africa’s weather service projects below‑normal rainfall this autumn and winter for southwestern and southern coasts, and India’s meteorological outlook points to a weaker 2026 southwest monsoon.
- Analysts warn Asia could face higher power demand, weaker hydropower output, and crop stress as fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain strained and heat intensifies.
- El Niño tends to boost wind shear over the Atlantic, which can limit hurricane formation, and some researchers say a strong event on top of human‑caused warming could push 2026 toward record global heat.