Overview
- Key fertilizer benchmarks rose more than 50% over the past year, with an extra 25% to 28% jump from late February to late March tied to fresh supply risks.
- Mexico’s exposure is high, with more than 70% of fertilizer imported and January–February purchases up 34.1% to 561,000 tonnes from suppliers such as Russia, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, the United States and Canada.
- Producers report thinner margins as costs climb, with maize operating outlays near 55,000 pesos per hectare and the Fertilizantes para el Bienestar program facing budget and logistics strain.
- Farm groups warn the squeeze will reach shoppers, pointing to recent jumps in tomatoes, tomatillos and limes and a likely rise in the price of tortilla as fuel and input costs filter through.
- Energy and freight drive the surge because nitrogen fertilizer depends on natural gas and trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, while Pemex’s domestic prices track gas that is up roughly 20% to 30%.