Overview
- Two decades of seismic data in Science show magnitude-5-and-stronger earthquakes migrating east along the Marmara fault toward Istanbul, with increasing event sizes.
- The April 2025 magnitude‑6.2 quake west of the locked zone left a roughly 15‑kilometre quiet patch and did little to relieve accumulated stress, researchers report.
- The fully locked Princes' Islands segment south of Istanbul has stored strain sufficient for at least a magnitude‑7 event, with prior analyses indicating stronger shaking directed eastward.
- GFZ researchers urge more seafloor seismic and geodetic stations, offshore fiber‑optic sensing, and borehole instruments to strengthen real-time detection and warning.
- In parallel, a magnitude‑6.7 quake off Aomori triggered a tsunami warning later lifted after ~20‑centimetre waves, a separate magnitude‑4.9 struck near Tokyo without damage, and Antalya logged two moderate quakes with no injuries.