Overview
- The German Weather Service says a winter forecast is still very uncertain and reports an 86% tendency for December–February to be normal to warmer than 1991–2020.
- Current ECMWF and NOAA CFS ensemble runs show no consistent signal for an exceptionally cold winter in Germany.
- Several model runs hint at a weaker stratospheric polar vortex, yet any Arctic cold outbreaks into Europe would only be assessable a few weeks in advance, and experts question a simple cause‑effect link.
- Short‑term guidance points to a brief warm spell around November 1 with local highs near 20–21°C after stormy, changeable conditions.
- Traditional forecasts such as the 100‑year calendar and Bauernregeln are circulating early‑snow claims, while regional meteorologists note a milder trend into mid‑November and caution against over‑interpreting long‑range signals.